Baccarat vs Blackjack: Which Game Has Better Odds?
Baccarat vs blackjack is the classic casino question: both are card games against the house, both have a low house edge, and both are dealt from a multi-deck shoe. The short answer is that blackjack has better odds only if you play it perfectly at a table that pays 3 to 2. Baccarat gives you a 1.06% house edge on Banker with no decisions at all, while blackjack starts around 0.5% and gets worse with every strategy mistake or rule change. This page puts the two games side by side with numbers we calculated ourselves, so you can see exactly where each one wins.
Baccarat odds vs blackjack: the house edge side by side
| Game and bet | House edge | Average loss per $1,000 bet | Skill needed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blackjack, perfect basic strategy, 3:2 payout | about 0.5% | about $5 | High — every hand is a decision |
| Baccarat — Banker (5% commission) | 1.06% | $10.58 | None |
| Baccarat — Player | 1.24% | $12.35 | None |
| Blackjack, perfect basic strategy, 6:5 payout | about 1.86% | about $18.60 | High |
| European roulette | 2.70% | $27.00 | None |
| Baccarat — Tie (8 to 1) | 14.36% | $143.60 | None |
The baccarat figures come from enumerating every card order in an 8-deck shoe (see our baccarat odds page). The blackjack figure of about 0.5% is the commonly quoted value for perfect basic strategy under typical rules; the 6:5 line adds the payout penalty we computed below. The ranking is clear: a well-played 3:2 blackjack game is the cheapest, baccarat Banker is next, and a 6:5 blackjack table drops below both Banker and Player.
What the blackjack 0.5% assumes
In baccarat the cards are drawn by a fixed rule. You choose Banker, Player or Tie, and from that moment nothing you do changes the hand. That is why the 1.06% is the same for a first-time player and a professional. Blackjack is the opposite: you decide whether to hit, stand, double down or split on every hand, and the 0.5% figure is the edge only when every one of those decisions matches the basic strategy chart for the exact rules at your table. Standing on 12 against a dealer 2, never doubling 11, or splitting tens are each small leaks, and they add up. Most casual blackjack players play somewhere between the chart and their gut, so their real edge is above 0.5% — often well above. Baccarat removes that risk entirely; you cannot misplay a Banker bet.
There is a second hidden assumption: rules. Blackjack edges move with the number of decks, whether the dealer hits soft 17, whether you can double after a split, and above all how a blackjack is paid. Baccarat rules are almost identical everywhere; the main variable is the commission (5% standard, no-commission tables at 1.46%, EZ Baccarat at 1.02%).
The 6:5 blackjack trap, calculated
A blackjack is an ace plus a ten-value card on the first two cards. We calculated how often it happens with card removal included:
| Shoe | Chance of a player blackjack | Player blackjack and dealer has none | Extra edge if paid 6:5 instead of 3:2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 decks | 4.7451% (about 1 hand in 21) | 4.5266% | +1.358% |
| 6 decks | 4.7489% | 4.5323% | +1.360% |
| 1 deck | 4.8265% | 4.6492% | +1.395% |
The arithmetic is simple. On a $10 bet, 3:2 pays $15 and 6:5 pays $12, so you give up 0.3 of your bet each time you are paid a blackjack. That happens about 4.53% of hands in an 8-deck shoe (a blackjack against a dealer blackjack is a push, so those do not count), and 0.3 × 4.53% = 1.36% of every bet. Add that to the 0.5% base and a perfectly played 6:5 game costs about 1.86% — roughly $18.60 per $1,000 wagered, against $10.58 on baccarat Banker. If the only blackjack tables near you pay 6:5, baccarat is the better-odds game even before counting your mistakes.
Naturals: 1 in 21 vs 1 in 3
Both games have a "natural", but they mean very different things. A blackjack natural appears in about 4.75% of hands and pays a bonus. A baccarat natural 8 or 9 appears in 34.3% of rounds (18.9% for each hand) and simply ends the round — it pays even money like any other win. That is why baccarat feels faster and more decisive: about one round in three is over after four cards, and nobody at the table has anything to decide.
How the money moves in a session
A lower edge only shows up over many hands. For baccarat Banker at flat stakes, we computed how sessions spread out (one unit per hand):
| Hands on Banker | Expected result | 95% of results between | Chance of being ahead |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100 | −1.1 units | −19 and +17 | 45.5% |
| 1,000 | −10.6 units | −68 and +47 | 35.9% |
| 10,000 | −106 units | −288 and +76 | 12.7% |
Over a single evening the gap between 0.5% and 1.06% is small compared with the swings: on 100 hands of $10 the expected difference is about $5.60, while the normal range spans hundreds of dollars. The edge becomes the story only for someone who plays thousands of hands. A baccarat table also moves fast — typically 60 to 80 rounds an hour, and over 120 at speed baccarat — and the hourly cost is edge times hands, so pace matters as much as the edge.
Card counting: works in blackjack, barely moves baccarat
Card counting is the reason blackjack has a reputation as beatable. In baccarat the effect of removed cards is tiny. Taking one 4 out of an 8-deck shoe — the card with the biggest effect — improves Banker by only 0.0116 percentage points, so cancelling the 1.06% edge would need around 91 extra fours removed, and the shoe only has 32. In our shoe simulations with perfect tracking of every card and a one-deck cut card, Banker became a positive bet on 0.000% of hands. The only real exception is the pair side bet late in the shoe, and even there the gain is about 0.015 units per shoe. Details: baccarat card counting.
Which game should you choose?
- You will learn and follow a strategy chart, and a 3:2 table is available: blackjack has the lower edge.
- You want the lowest edge without decisions: baccarat Banker at 1.06% (or EZ Baccarat Banker at 1.02%).
- Only 6:5 blackjack is offered: baccarat Banker or Player both beat it.
- Whichever you play: avoid the baccarat Tie at 8 to 1 and most side bets; they cost many times more than the main bets.
Neither game can be beaten with a betting system, and no pattern on a scoreboard changes the numbers above. If you want to see how real baccarat shoes actually behave — streaks, ties, naturals — open the live terminal or record your own shoes in the free Baccarat Scoreboard app, and use the baccarat analyzer to check how often any idea would really have hit.
FAQ
Is baccarat better than blackjack? For a player who does not want to make decisions, yes: Banker costs 1.06% with zero skill. For a disciplined basic-strategy player at a 3:2 table, blackjack is cheaper at about 0.5%.
Which has better odds, baccarat or blackjack? Perfect 3:2 blackjack (about 0.5%) beats baccarat Banker (1.06%). 6:5 blackjack (about 1.86%) is worse than both baccarat main bets.
Why is baccarat called a game with good odds? Because its main bets carry only 1.06% and 1.24%, lower than roulette (2.70%), and nobody can play them badly.
Can you count cards in baccarat like in blackjack? Not usefully for Banker or Player; the edge almost never turns positive even with perfect tracking.
Does the number of decks matter? Very little in baccarat (Banker 1.06% with 6 or 8 decks). In blackjack fewer decks help slightly, but the payout rule matters far more.
Baccarat and blackjack-natural figures: exact enumeration with card removal by Baccarat Terminal (October 2026). The blackjack basic-strategy edge of about 0.5% is the commonly quoted value for typical rules. 18+. Information only — not a gambling service and not betting advice.