Baccarat Dragon Bonus: Odds for Every Margin
The Dragon Bonus is a baccarat side bet on how much a hand wins by. You choose Player or Banker, and you are paid more the bigger the winning margin — up to 30 to 1 for a non-natural win by nine points. It is the most popular side bet on live tables after the pairs, and the most misunderstood: the two sides look the same on the layout but carry very different costs. Below is the probability of every outcome, calculated by enumerating every possible card sequence from an 8-deck shoe.
Dragon Bonus pay table
Most live and land-based tables use this table (sometimes called "standard" or "pay table 1"):
| Your hand… | Pays |
|---|---|
| Wins with a natural (8 or 9 on two cards) | 1 to 1 |
| Ties with a natural | Push (stake returned) |
| Wins by 9 points (not a natural) | 30 to 1 |
| Wins by 8 | 10 to 1 |
| Wins by 7 | 6 to 1 |
| Wins by 6 | 4 to 1 |
| Wins by 5 | 2 to 1 |
| Wins by 4 | 1 to 1 |
| Wins by 1, 2 or 3; any non-natural tie; any loss | Lose |
Note the trap in the last row: your side can win the round and you still lose the Dragon Bonus, because a narrow win by 1–3 points pays nothing.
Probability of every outcome (8 decks)
| Outcome | Dragon on Player | Dragon on Banker | Pays |
|---|---|---|---|
| Natural win | 16.26% | 16.26% | 1:1 |
| Natural tie | 1.79% | 1.79% | Push |
| Win by 9 | 0.37% | 0.31% | 30:1 |
| Win by 8 | 0.68% | 0.57% | 10:1 |
| Win by 7 | 1.79% | 1.59% | 6:1 |
| Win by 6 | 2.83% | 2.38% | 4:1 |
| Win by 5 | 3.32% | 3.15% | 2:1 |
| Win by 4 | 3.74% | 4.02% | 1:1 |
| Win by 3 (loses) | 4.29% | 4.97% | — |
| Win by 2 (loses) | 5.06% | 5.82% | — |
| Win by 1 (loses) | 6.29% | 6.79% | — |
| Non-natural tie (loses) | 7.73% | 7.73% | — |
| Other side wins | 45.86% | 44.62% | — |
| House edge | 2.65% | 9.37% |
Adding it up: the Dragon Bonus pays something in about 29.0% of rounds on Player and 28.3% on Banker. In other words, you lose this bet roughly seven times out of ten — the bigger payouts are what make up the difference, and they do not fully make it up.
Why the Banker side costs so much more
Banker wins the main game more often, so it seems natural that Banker would be the better Dragon side. It is the opposite, and the reason is the drawing rule. Banker gets to see the Player's third card before deciding whether to draw. That lets Banker squeeze out more narrow wins — exactly the 1–3 point wins that pay nothing here. Compare the two columns:
- Wins by 1–3 points (which lose the Dragon Bonus): Player 15.64%, Banker 17.58%.
- Wins by 6–9 points (the big payouts): Player 5.67%, Banker 4.85%.
- Main-game losses: Player side loses 45.86% of rounds, Banker side 44.62%.
Banker's extra main-game wins are mostly small ones. Player's wins, when they happen without a natural, are more often wide. The result is a 2.65% edge on Player against 9.37% on Banker — more than three times as expensive for the same-looking bet.
Where the return comes from
Each payout line returns a share of your stake on average (probability × payout). On the Player side the largest contributions come from wins by 6 (11.3% of stake), by 9 (11.0%) and by 7 (10.8%); the 30-to-1 line looks exciting but only arrives about once every 272 rounds on Player and once every 325 rounds on Banker. In a typical 80-round shoe you will usually not see a single win by nine.
| Line | Player: share of stake returned | Banker: share of stake returned |
|---|---|---|
| Natural win 1:1 | 16.26% | 16.26% |
| Win by 9 (30:1) | 11.05% | 9.24% |
| Win by 8 (10:1) | 6.82% | 5.66% |
| Win by 7 (6:1) | 10.75% | 9.55% |
| Win by 6 (4:1) | 11.30% | 9.54% |
| Win by 5 (2:1) | 6.65% | 6.29% |
| Win by 4 (1:1) | 3.74% | 4.02% |
Worked example: 100 bets of 10
Put 10 on Dragon Bonus Player for 100 rounds (1,000 staked). On average you get back about 973.50, an expected cost of 26.50. Do the same on Banker and the expected cost is about 93.70. For comparison, 1,000 staked on the main Banker bet costs about 10.58 on average, and on the main Player bet about 12.35. So even the cheaper Dragon side costs more than twice as much as the main game, and the Banker Dragon costs about nine times as much.
6 decks and other pay tables
With a 6-deck shoe the numbers barely move: 2.67% on Player and 9.39% on Banker. Pay tables are a different story. Some tables pay less for the middle margins, and every cut to a payout line removes that line's share of the return straight from your side — for example, a win by 6 paying 3 to 1 instead of 4 to 1 removes about 2.8 percentage points on Player. Always read the pay table at your table; the figures above are only valid for the standard one shown at the top.
Is there a Dragon Bonus strategy?
No betting pattern changes these numbers, because every round is dealt from the same rules. Two practical points do hold:
- If you play Dragon Bonus at all, the Player side is the one to choose — always, regardless of what the scoreboard shows.
- Keep it small relative to your main bet. At 2.65% it is the cheapest side bet in common use, but it is still a side bet; see how it compares with pairs, Dragon 7 and Panda 8 in our baccarat side bets guide.
The Dragon Bonus is also unrelated to the "dragon" you may hear about when reading the scoreboard — a long streak of one side on the big road is sometimes called a dragon. That is a description of past results, not a bet, and it does not change the odds of the next round; see how to read the big road, and the baccarat glossary for other table terms.
FAQ
What is the Dragon Bonus in baccarat? A side bet that your chosen hand wins by a large margin, paying up to 30 to 1 for a non-natural win by nine.
Should I bet Dragon Bonus on Player or Banker? Player. Its house edge is 2.65% against 9.37% for Banker with the standard pay table.
Why did I lose the Dragon Bonus when my hand won? Wins by only 1, 2 or 3 points (without a natural) lose this bet. That happens in about 16% of rounds on Player and 18% on Banker.
How often does the 30 to 1 payout hit? About 0.37% of rounds on Player (roughly once in 272) and 0.31% on Banker (once in 325).
What happens on a tie? A natural tie is a push. Any other tie loses the Dragon Bonus.
Is Dragon Bonus the same as Dragon 7? No. Dragon 7 is an EZ Baccarat side bet that pays 40 to 1 when Banker wins with a three-card 7.
Curious how often big-margin wins show up at a real table? The free Baccarat Scoreboard app records each hand and its totals as you tap them, so you can count your own Dragon outcomes over a whole shoe.
All probabilities and edges: exhaustive enumeration of every card sequence from an 8-deck (and 6-deck) shoe with standard punto banco drawing rules and the pay table shown. 18+. Informational only.