Baccarat Odds and House Edge: Exact Probabilities for 8 Decks
Most baccarat odds tables online are copied from one another. The numbers below were computed from scratch: we enumerated every possible sequence of cards from an 8-deck shoe (416 cards), applied the standard punto banco drawing rules to each one and added up the results. The same method was used for 6 decks. Where published figures exist, ours match them to four decimal places.
Probability of each outcome
| Outcome | 8 decks | 6 decks | Ignoring ties |
|---|---|---|---|
| Banker wins | 45.86% | 45.87% | 50.68% |
| Player wins | 44.62% | 44.63% | 49.32% |
| Tie | 9.52% | 9.51% | — |
So baccarat is almost, but not quite, a coin flip. Ignoring ties, Banker wins 50.68% of hands. The difference comes from the Banker hand drawing second with knowledge of the Player's third card (third-card rule).
House edge of every bet
| Bet | Pays | Win probability | House edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Banker (5% commission) | 0.95 to 1 | 45.86% | 1.06% |
| Banker, EZ Baccarat (3-card 7 pushes) | 1 to 1 | 43.61% | 1.02% |
| Banker, no-commission (win on 6 pays half) | 1 to 1 | 45.86% | 1.46% |
| Player | 1 to 1 | 44.62% | 1.24% |
| Tie | 8 to 1 | 9.52% | 14.36% |
| Tie | 9 to 1 | 9.52% | 4.84% |
| Player Pair or Banker Pair | 11 to 1 | 7.47% | 10.36% |
| Either Pair | 5 to 1 | 14.38% | 13.71% |
| Dragon 7 | 40 to 1 | 2.25% | 7.61% |
| Panda 8 | 25 to 1 | 3.45% | 10.19% |
| Dragon Bonus on Player | up to 30 to 1 | — | 2.65% |
| Dragon Bonus on Banker | up to 30 to 1 | — | 9.37% |
The house edge is the average fraction of each bet the casino keeps. It is the only number that tells you what a bet costs: 1.06% means about $1.06 lost per $100 wagered on average. Side bet details: baccarat side bets explained.
Baccarat odds explained: odds against vs probability
"Baccarat odds" can mean two things. Probability is how often a result happens (Banker 45.86%). Odds against compares losing to winning: a 45.86% chance is about 1.18 to 1 against, Player (44.62%) about 1.24 to 1 against, and Tie (9.52%) about 9.5 to 1 against. A fair bet pays its odds against; the casino pays less, and the gap is the house edge. A Tie that is 9.5 to 1 against but pays 8 to 1 is where its 14.36% edge comes from; at 9 to 1 the gap narrows to 4.84%. Banker and Player pay even money while being slightly worse than 1 to 1 for the bettor, which is why their edges are small.
What the odds mean in money
| 100 flat $10 bets on | Expected loss |
|---|---|
| Banker | $10.58 |
| Player | $12.35 |
| Tie (8 to 1) | $143.60 |
Those are averages. A single session swings far more than the expected loss — after 100 Banker bets, 95% of results fall between about −19 and +17 units. That is why winning nights are common even though the edge never goes away. See baccarat strategy for how variance behaves over longer play.
Naturals and third cards
- A natural (8 or 9 on the first two cards) happens in 34.3% of rounds — 18.9% for the Player hand, 18.9% for the Banker hand (baccarat natural 8 and 9).
- The Player hand draws a third card in 50.3% of rounds; the Banker hand in 43.5%.
- The Banker wins with a total of 6 in 5.39% of rounds (the "Super 6" of no-commission tables).
Streaks: longer than you think
An 8-deck shoe produces roughly 80 hands, about 72 of them not ties. Treating those decisions as independent (card removal barely matters), the chance of seeing at least one streak of the same side:
| Streak length (either side) | At least once in a shoe |
|---|---|
| 5 or more | 92.1% |
| 6 or more | 68.8% |
| 7 or more | 42.4% |
| 8 or more | 23.4% |
| 9 or more | 12.2% |
| 10 or more | 6.1% |
A 6-streak in most shoes and a 10-streak in one shoe out of sixteen: long "dragons" on the big road are normal behaviour of random results, not evidence of a pattern. The probability that the next six decisions are all Banker is about 1.7% (0.5068 to the sixth power).
Ties per shoe
With a 9.52% tie rate an 80-hand shoe averages about 7.6 ties. The chance of at least one tie within the next 10 hands is 63%, and it is common (13.5%) to go 20 hands without one. More: the tie bet.
Baccarat odds vs blackjack and roulette
| Game and bet | House edge |
|---|---|
| Blackjack with perfect basic strategy (typical rules) | about 0.5% |
| Baccarat — Banker | 1.06% |
| Baccarat — Player | 1.24% |
| European roulette (single zero) | 2.70% |
| American roulette (double zero) | 5.26% |
Blackjack can be cheaper, but only with flawless strategy; baccarat's 1.06% needs no skill at all, which is why it is often called one of the best-odds games in a casino. Full comparison, including the 6:5 blackjack payout: baccarat vs blackjack.
Odds FAQ
What are the odds of winning at baccarat? On a single hand: Banker 45.86%, Player 44.62%, Tie 9.52% (8 decks).
Does the number of decks matter? Barely. With 6 decks the Banker edge is 1.06% and the Player edge 1.24% — the same to two decimals.
Which bet has the best odds? Banker at a standard table (1.06%); at EZ Baccarat tables, Banker at 1.02%.
Do previous results change the odds? Only through card removal, which shifts Banker/Player probabilities by tiny amounts. Streaks on the scoreboard do not make the next result more or less likely in any usable way.
You can check these frequencies on real shoes: the free Baccarat Scoreboard app counts Banker, Player, ties, naturals, pairs and streaks for every shoe you record.
Method: exhaustive enumeration of all card sequences for 8 and 6 decks under punto banco rules (Baccarat Terminal, September 2026). Streak and tie-run figures treat non-tie decisions as independent.