Baccarat Tie Bet: Payout, Odds and House Edge
The tie is the most tempting bet on the baccarat layout: it pays 8 to 1 and it comes up regularly. It is also by far the most expensive of the three main bets. Here are the exact numbers for an 8-deck shoe.
How often does a tie happen?
A tie — both hands finishing on the same total — happens in 9.52% of rounds, about once every 10.5 hands. In an 80-hand shoe that averages 7.6 ties, though any single shoe can have far fewer or far more.
| Situation | Probability |
|---|---|
| Tie on any given hand | 9.52% |
| At least one tie in the next 10 hands | 63.2% |
| No tie for 20 hands in a row | 13.5% |
| Average ties in an 80-hand shoe | 7.6 |
Tie payout: 8 to 1 versus 9 to 1
| Tie pays | You receive on a $10 win | House edge |
|---|---|---|
| 8 to 1 (most tables) | $80 + your $10 back | 14.36% |
| 9 to 1 (some tables) | $90 + your $10 back | 4.84% |
| Fair payout (no edge) | about $95.10 | 0% |
A fair tie bet would have to pay about 9.51 to 1 — the ratio of non-ties to ties. At 8 to 1 the casino keeps 14.36% of every tie bet on average, more than thirteen times the cost of betting Banker (1.06%). Even a 9-to-1 table is four and a half times more expensive than Banker. Compare all bets: baccarat odds and house edge.
Betting only the tie for 100 hands
Suppose you bet $10 on the tie for 100 hands. At 8 to 1 you need 12 or more ties just to break even ($80 × 12 = $960 plus $120 of returned stakes = $1,080, against $1,000 wagered). The chance of that is 24.1%; the other 75.9% of the time you finish behind, and the average loss is about $143.60. At a 9-to-1 table ten ties are enough and the break-even chance rises to 48.4% — one unit of payout makes that much difference.
| Within one 80-hand shoe | Probability |
|---|---|
| No tie at all | 0.03% |
| 3 ties or fewer | 4.7% |
| 10 ties or more | 22.8% |
| 12 ties or more | 7.6% |
| Two specific hands in a row both tie | 0.91% |
| Three specific hands in a row all tie | 0.086% |
A shoe with ten or more ties happens about once in every five shoes. One such shoe is enough to convince people that a table is "tie-friendly", but it is normal variation of a 9.52% event.
What the tie costs next to Banker and Player
House edge is easiest to feel as money. Multiply each edge by the amount you put through the table and you get the average loss:
| Bet | House edge | Average loss per $1,000 wagered |
|---|---|---|
| Banker (5% commission) | 1.06% | $10.58 |
| Player | 1.24% | $12.35 |
| Tie at 9 to 1 | 4.84% | $48.44 |
| Tie at 8 to 1 | 14.36% | $143.60 |
A player who moves the same $1,000 from Banker to the tie at an 8-to-1 table multiplies the expected cost of their session by more than thirteen. On a 6-deck shoe the numbers barely move: the tie comes up 9.51% of the time, so the edge is 14.44% at 8 to 1 and 4.93% at 9 to 1.
Which totals tie most often?
Ties are not spread evenly over the ten possible totals. Two-card hands that stand on 6 or 7 are very common, so 7-7 and 6-6 are the most frequent ties — together 41.6% of all ties. Natural ties (8-8 or 9-9 on the first two cards) add another 18.8%. Low ties such as 1-1 and 2-2 are the rarest, because those hands almost always draw a third card.
| Tie | Chance per hand | Share of all ties |
|---|---|---|
| 7-7 | 2.04% | 21.4% |
| 6-6 | 1.92% | 20.2% |
| 9-9 | 1.10% | 11.6% |
| 8-8 | 1.10% | 11.5% |
| 5-5 | 0.79% | 8.3% |
| 4-4 | 0.73% | 7.6% |
| 0-0 | 0.58% | 6.1% |
| 3-3 | 0.45% | 4.7% |
| 1-1 | 0.41% | 4.3% |
| 2-2 | 0.40% | 4.2% |
The tie bet pays the same 8 to 1 whatever the total, so this changes nothing about the bet itself. It does explain something regular players notice: ties cluster on 6s and 7s because those are the totals where both hands most often stop drawing.
What happens to Player and Banker bets on a tie?
They are returned — a push. You neither win nor lose, and at a commission table no commission is charged. This is why the tie is ignored when people quote "Banker wins 50.68%": those figures are for hands that were not ties.
"The tie is due" — why that fails
Ties feel like they come in waves: three in ten hands, then nothing for twenty-five. That is exactly what a 9.52% event looks like at random. After a long run without a tie, the chance of a tie on the next hand is still about 9.5%; card removal in an 8-deck shoe changes it only slightly. Progressive tie betting (raising the stake after each miss) multiplies exposure to a 14% edge — it is the fastest way to lose a bankroll at a baccarat table. See why betting systems don't work.
How ties appear on the scoreboard
On the bead plate a tie is a green circle. On the big road it is a green slash across the previous cell, with a number when several ties come in a row; ties never start a new column, and the derived roads ignore them. Reading guide: how to read the big road.
FAQ
How much does a tie pay in baccarat? Usually 8 to 1; some tables pay 9 to 1.
What are the odds of a tie? 9.52% per hand with 8 decks (9.51% with 6 decks).
Do I lose my Banker or Player bet on a tie? No — it is returned.
Is there a tie betting strategy? No strategy removes the edge. If you like the tie, look for a 9-to-1 table (4.84%) and keep the stake small.
Count the real tie rate of the shoes you watch with the free Baccarat Scoreboard app — it totals ties for every saved shoe.